Many markets did not fare well this past week, the DOW and gold in particular. Premature bets continued to be placed, which is to say that many people, traders, investors, however we refer to them, have been gambling, far and wide. Meme stocks and crypto and social media users get so much attention, yet there is actually very little separating folks at this time, including the “smart money” (which rarely looks that smart anymore, if it ever did).

There are many different groups, including the group that made the premature bet that the Fed would be forced to raise rates…

Which market didn’t seem to care about the big bad “inflation” wolf? US Treasuries. Yields have been falling as if because of the latest CPI data, 5% YoY.

In turn, the NASDAQ and similar gained for the week ending June 11, while gold fell. It is possible that, (gasp!), the Fed might be taken seriously after all regarding the assessment that high inflation figures will be fleeting.

Quick read for the week ending June 11:

• Yields fell for most of the week and finished considerably down.
• The DXY gained to close things out.
• Oil continued to rise.

CALL: No change…

All assets reacted to the jobs data at the end of the week and what it says about economic support and any recovery. The health of the labor market, as discussed here week after week, is central to all else. Weakness there implies more need for support, which fuels various bets.

On the back of a 3.6% rise in YoY PCE for the month of April, the jobs report released Friday for May once again disappointed. …

Quick wrap for the week ending May 28:

• Yields finished slightly down after a volatile week.
• The DXY was flat.
• Oil rose.

CALL: No change; near to semi-intermediate term, prices could rise further given supply shocks, OPEC+ micromanagement, inflation expectations, "recovery," and more fiscal spending, among other things. Longer term, it's a dying industry.[tracking: XLE, GGN]

• The S&P Global Clean Energy index finished up for the week.

[tracking: TAN]

• Gold breached $1,900 before finishing below that level.

CALL: In the very near term, it must be acknowledged that gold has the uncertain potential to rise further as traders who…

The crypto market imploded, then imploded again in spectacular fashion. At one point, more than $1 trillion market cap had vaporized. The hits just kept on coming. If buying the dips, extreme caution is advised.

The space is facing multiple headwinds, including the investigation of the Binance exchange (one of the largest); what the IRS and Treasury want; concerns with the Tether stablecoin’s reserves; China’s unforgiving stance on crypto; good old-fashioned forced liquidations of highly leveraged positions; and Elon Musk’s market manipulating statements. The latter party may draw some regulatory scrutiny, himself.

A very clear issue that will remain and…

There is a simple factor contributing majorly to the steep inflation number of 4.2% for the 12 months (UA) ending April 2021; oil prices were negative one year ago April, and the industry was cratering. The energy category, along with its subcategories, had the highest numbers in the BLS’s latest report. Gasoline alone for the 12 months ending April 2021 saw a nearly 50% rise.

The Fed and others should know this; and the jump in official inflation figures will prove fleeting.

By May 2020, crude oil was recovering, though gasoline took longer. …

The current US administration is entering a predicament phase, facing the conundrum of seeking to spend more without the comfort of knowing that it can easily borrow more to do so. Apparently Treasury has been doing things in a certain way to avoid hitting the debt ceiling, but it’s capacity to do that may be coming to an end in the summer timeframe, says Yellen.

Earlier in the week, Yellen walked back remarks about an impending recovery and rates rising accordingly. For their part, PIMCO and Goldman Sachs think the recovery and inflation, or reflation, trade, and any subsequent raising…

A partial digest:

Thursday was day 100 of the Biden-Harris administration. Meanwhile, another stimulus package is being floated.

US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%. PCE was high at 10.7%, while the PCE price index came in at 3.5%. One should remember that these figures were facilitated by stimulus checks, and those are fleeting. In quarters where little to no fiscal aid was provided to the general population in 2020 or prior years, PCE was predictably much lower.

What this signifies, in part, is that we still have no reason to expect sustained systemic inflation, yet.

Quick wrap:

• Yields rose to…