04162021 :: Friday finance

Friday was day 87 of the Biden-Harris administration. Russia shall be blocked.

[tracking: SPXL, VTI, QQQ, XLK, XLE, MCHI]
  • In spite of CPI inflation, yields finished down for the week. There was a big short in place after all, spearheaded by hedge funds, as well as continued foreign selling of Treasuries in the month of February. Apparently China in particular has been eating it up, though, buying the dip and saying thanks for the discount all the while. Theories on why yields are now falling include historical precedence.
  • Simultaneously, the DXY declined to slightly above 91.5.
  • Crude finished up for the week.
CALL: No change; near to semi-intermediate term, prices could rise further given supply shocks, OPEC+ micromanagement, inflation expectations, "recovery," and more fiscal spending, among other things. Longer term, it's a dying industry.[tracking: XLE, GUSH, DRIP]
  • Total crypto market cap is above $2.02 trillion as of publication. Grayscale bought into an ETF company and filed to change the ticker to BTC, and another use-case for blockchain by a major organization surfaced.
  • Gold finished the week higher.
CALL: No change; expecting ever-lower valuations moving forward. Looking for an eventual floor around $1,200/oz.
  • So long as crypto is essentially unregulated, this may happen again and again.
  • The crypto markets are easily manipulated.
  • This latest price action made for a good buying opportunity.
CALL: No change; housing weakness inbound. For the call to reverse, labor conditions would have to consistently improve, among other things. A giant infrastructure bill could help.[tracking: DRV, XLRE, SPG, VNO, WPG, NLY]
  • Fitch has revised Macao’s credit outlook to stable as it expects the nation to benefit from a rebound in gaming tourism. This year, the industry is projected to recover to just half of what it was pre-pandemic, picking up speed in the second half of the year. Macao’s public finances have stayed strong, but any further recovery depends on easing international travel restrictions, vaccine rollout, and virus containment, among other things.
[tracking: MCHI, EDC/EDZ, VWO, EWU, IEV]

Footnotes

¹ Valenta, Philip. “Death by COVID-19 Hides in Plain Sight.” HedgeHound (June 29, 2020). The research includes the full methodology behind the figures presented here every week, as well as information on historical pneumonia trends and death categorization in the US during the global pandemic. It was last updated on December 4, 2020.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store